Another poll shows Peter Obi leads Atiku, Tinubu, Kwankwaso

Peter ObiThe Labor Party’s (LP) presidential candidate would be the winner of the 2023 election if it were held today, according to an opinion poll by Nextier, a multi-skills consulting firm.

The survey conducted in rural communities interviewed 2,000 Nigerian registered voters in 12 states across six geopolitical zones. Polling group Nextier said it excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice presidential candidates.

The poll suggests a three-horse presidential race between Mr Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Despite his strong support base in the north-west of Nigeria, especially Kano state, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) is not considered a leading candidate, according to the poll.

The poll results show that Mr. Obi is leading in the rural communities at 40.37 percent. Mr. Abubakar is a distant second with 26.7 percent, closely followed by Mr. Tinubu with 20.47 percent.

At 30 percent, the LP candidate has the largest clear margin, the report said.

“Atiku Abubakar is at 17.3 percent; Bola Tinubu at 4.98 percent and Kwankwaso at -8.70 percent”.

The survey showed that Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Tinubu were preferred by respondents who have no education level or people who chose not to disclose their educational status.

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With less than 100 days to go before the election, eight out of 10 respondents are confident that nothing will change their mind and they will vote for a different candidate. The survey found that radio, social media and family/friends are the main ways people get information about presidential candidates.

76.2 percent of Nigerians interviewed said the country is heading in the wrong direction citing insecurity, bad governance, unemployment, weak economy and poverty as the most pressing issues that need to be urgently addressed.

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In the North Central, he said the organization visited Benue and Nasarawa states where 59.8% of the people have decided to vote for Mr. Obi. About 18% said they will vote for Mr. Abubakar and 16.4% have decided to vote for Mr. Tinubu while 5.1% are undecided.

A remarkable 50.3 percent of North East respondents said they will vote for the PDP candidate; 27.2% for the APC candidate and 14.6% for the NNPP candidate. Only 5.8% of people interviewed in the North East said they will vote for Mr. Obi.

Similarly, in the North West, 59.8% of Nigerians said they will vote for Mr. Abubakar; followed by Mr. Tinubu, 25.4 percent; Mr. Kwankwaso, 12.6 percent; and Mr. Obi got 0.6 percent.

The results, however, showed that about 67% of respondents will vote for Mr. Obi in the South-South, while another 11% said they will vote for Mr. Abubakar. 10.7 percent said they will vote for Mr. Tinubu and 9.8 percent were still undecided.

It was expected that in the South East, 94% of respondents said their preferred candidate is Mr. Obi while a scant 2.8% said they will vote for Mr. Abubakar. Messrs. Tinubu and Kwankwaso get 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent respectively.

Findings from the South West poll showed Mr. Tinubu ahead with 37.4 percent; Mr. Obi at 24 percent; Mr. Abubakar at 16.5 percent; and Mr. Kwankwaso at 2.3 percent.

In all age groups, Mr. Obi recorded the highest level of preference closely followed by Mr. Abubakar. On the other hand, Mr. Abubakar has the highest preference among Muslim believers, while Mr. Obi is preferred by respondents who identify as religious or not.

The poll results show that Mr. Obi is the preferred candidate of the highly educated demographic. Furthermore, while Mr. Abubakar is preferred by respondents who chose not to disclose their employment status (“gaps”), Mr. Obi is preferred by respondents in most employment groups.