Bagudu, Aliero renew supremacy fight in supplementary election

By-polls for the governorship election in Kebbi State will be held in 142 polling stations across the state. Elections will also be held in 23 units for the Kebbi North senatorial district election.

There will also be by-elections in the 10 Houses of Assembly and the two federal constituencies of Arewa-Dandi and Koko-Besse.

For the gubernatorial election, there are 91,829 voters in the affected polling stations.

The contest in the senatorial election is largely between Yahaya Abdullahi of the PDP and Hussaini Kangiwa of the APC.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the election inconclusive after the results of 20 polling stations in the 21 local government areas of the state were canceled.

The contest is largely between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), represented by Nasir Idris, and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has Aminu Bande, a former military general, as its governorship candidate.

Mr. Idris currently has 388,258 votes followed by Mr. Bande with 342,980 votes. The election was considered inconclusive, because the difference of 45,278 votes that separates them is less than the number of voters in the areas, according to the collected Permanent Voter Card, which is 91,829.

The APC in the state is led by Govevrnor Atiku Bagudu while the PDP is led by a former senator and governor, Adamu Aliero.

Ahead of the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections, both parties were fired up and attacked each other relentlessly.

While the PDP accused the APC of not fulfilling its campaign promises, the APC accused the PDP of being part of the confusion because most of its members were in the APC before they defected.

Although Mr. Idris and Mr. Bande are the governorship candidates, Saturday’s contest is seen between Mr. Bagudu and Ms. Aliero who were political allies until this election cycle.

Bagudu and Aliero

When Mr. Aliero left the Senate in 2007 to join the late President Umar Yar’adua’s cabinet as a minister, he helped Mr. Bagudu to take his Senate seat. In 2015, he also supported Mr. Bagudu for governorship while Mr. Aliero returned to the Senate under APC.

But when it became clear at the end of Mr. Bagudu’s tenure that he would contest the central senatorial seat of Kebbi, Mr. Aliero left the APC and joined the PDP. However, he was not left alone. He took another senator, Yahaya Abdullahi, and other federal lawmakers with him.

Defining factors

The results of the presidential and National Assembly elections affected the APC in the March 18 governorship election. Before the election, many believed that the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, had no chance against the APC candidate, Bola Tinubu, in Kebbi. This permutation was largely due to the influence of Mr. Bagudu, a staunch ally of the former Lagos governor.

However, Mr. Aliero led the PDP to victory. The opposition party got 285,175 votes and the APC got 248,088 votes.

Mr. Aliero also defeated Bagudu in the Kebbi central senatorial election. Mr. Aliero got 126,588 votes while Mr. Bagudu got 92,389, the former governor beat the incumbent by 34,199 votes.

Another surprise came for the APC when a debutant, Garba Maidoki of the PDP, defeated veteran MP Bala Ibn Na’Allah with 75,732 votes to 70,785 votes in the Kebbi South senatorial contest.

The results gave the PDP the will to fight the March 18 election.

However, on that day, the APC won a majority in the state House of Assembly. The state has 24 assembly members but elections were canceled in 10 constituencies.

Out of the 14 announced, the APC won 11 seats while the PDP won only three. The 11 returning APC members can influence the governorship election and turn the tide towards their party.

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One factor that will work in PDP’s favor is the protracted APC crisis in Kebbi State that led to Mr. Aliero and Yahaya going out with their supporters. The crisis did not end with the walkout, as several members complained that they were being harassed for being sympathetic to the ousted senators. Several local members of parliament were suspected of working for Mr. Aliero and the presidential election was just days away.

The governor was accused of not carrying party members and being an Abuja politician. Expected to be in Kebbi State to prepare for the re-election, Mr. Bagudu was mostly seen in Abuja with President-elect Tinubu or at the Presidential Villa.

Senior APC leaders like Mr. Na’Allah will not have much influence after their defeat in the last election.

The suspension of the member representing Koko/Besse Constituency, Shehu Muhammad by the APC on Thursday also showed that the crisis in the party is far from over.

The PDP can also use the APC candidate, Mr. Idris, where he hails from, Birnin Kebbi, the same local government area as Mr. Bagudu, to bring voters to their party.

However, although the PDP can boast of Messrs. Aliero and Yahaya (the two party leaders in the state) APC candidate is leading by 45,278 votes in the supplementary poll. This means that the PDP has a mountain to climb to cover this deficit.